Ukraine–When Good News Is Bad News
First, the good news. Russian forces have fled the northeast part of Kharkiv in the face of counter attacking Ukrainian forces. To see Russian troops retreating eastward after long months of bringing death and destruction to its neighbor is very good news for Ukraine.
Unfortunately, that good news also comes with some very bad news…
In reprisal for its battlefield defeat, Russian troops have attacked the city’s power generation stations (s) and other infrastructure. The intent is evidently to impose harsher conditions on the civilian population there and in surrounding areas.
"The center of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv was plunged into darkness on Sunday evening by an electricity blackout," Reuters has confirmed of the large-scale outage. There are also reports that parts of the city are also without water, greatly disrupting life for its inhabitants.
A key part of Ukraine’s battlefield success against Russia is the ongoing supply of Western weapons systems, which Moscow views, and rightly so, as a proxy war against Russia being waged by the West. That reality will most likely come with negative consequences. Specifically, Russia has repeatedly warned of expanding conflict with a “lightening fast” response. As of yet, no such response has occurred.
But that doesn’t mean escalation of the war isn’t on the table for Vladimir Putin, especially as conditions worsen for Russia. It’s fair to say that the Kremlin, at least under Putin, faces an existential crisis. Putin cannot survive a defeat in Ukraine politically or even physically. For Putin, losing will mean facing the gallows. Thus, the more Moscow feels provoked, the more it is likely to add new dimensions to its active warfare menu.
Losing ground in Ukraine due to Western intervention is a defeat for Moscow. So is the expansion of NATO. So, too, is the loss of revenue from natural gas sales to Europe, at least in the longer term. So, too, are the economic sanctions, as is the isolation from the West.
All of these losses, whether or not official acknowledged, make the Ukrainian adventure look like the debacle that it is, with Russia facing multidimensional losses in national prestige politically, militarily and economically. What’s more, even the good news that Israel is increasing its natural gas production to fill the void left by Russia, has its negative aspects. Russia faces the permanent loss of the European market.
Where does that leave Russia in both the short-and long-term, other than an economic basket case? The answer: a nuclear-armed basket case with little left to lose.
Putin is cornered, with no resolution in sight.
That’s the very bad news.
